Compound impact of COVID-19, economy and climate on the spatial distribution of global agriculture and food security.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold around the world, the per unit area yield of the world's three major crops (i.e. maize, rice and wheat) decreased simultaneously for the first time in 20 years, and nearly 2.37 billion people faced food insecurity in 2020. Around 119-124 million people were pushed back into extreme poverty. Drought is one of the natural hazards that mostly affect agricultural production, and 2020 is one of the three warmest years on record. When the pandemic, economic recession and extreme climate change occur simultaneously, food crisis will often be exacerbated. Due to the limited research on the geographic modelling of crops and food security at the country level, we investigated the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic (COVID-19 incidence and mortality rate), economic (GDP and per capita GDP), climate (temperature change and drought), and their compound effects on three crop yields and food security in the world. On the basis of verifying the spatial autocorrelation, we used the global ordinary least squares model to select the explanatory variables. Then, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multi-scale GWR (MGWR), were utilised to explore spatial non-stationary relationships. Results indicated that the MGWR was more efficient than the traditional GWR. On the whole, per capita GDP was the most important explanatory variable for most countries. However, the direct threats of COVID-19, temperature change and drought on crops and food security were small and localised. This study is the first to utilise advanced spatial methods to analyse the impacts of natural and human disasters on agriculture and food security in various countries, which can serve as a geographical guide for the World Food Organization, other relief agencies and policymakers to conduct food aid, health and medical assistance, financial support, climate change policy formulation, and anti-epidemic policy formulation.

Rural Farmers' Cognition and Climate Change Adaptation Impact on Cash Crop Productivity: Evidence from a Recent Study.

The world faces a once-in-a-century transformation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, adversely affecting farmers' employment, production practices, and livelihood resilience. Meanwhile, climate change (CC) is a crucial issue limiting agricultural production worldwide. Farmers' lives, severely affected by extreme weather conditions, are resulting in the reduced production of major economic crops. The CC has drastically influenced the major agricultural sectors of Pakistan, leading to a significant decline in farmers' living standards and the overall economy. Climate-smart and eco-friendly agricultural practices can mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and ameliorate agricultural productivity under extreme environmental conditions. This paper highlights farmers' autonomous CC adaptation strategies and their influence on cash crop (maize for this study) yield under prevailing circumstances. The current study used a simultaneous equation model to examine the different adaptation impacts on adapters and non-adapters. The survey results of 498 maize farmers in rural Pakistan revealed that growers were aware of the recent CC and had taken adequate adaptive measures to acclimatize to CC. Farmers' arable land area, awareness level, and information accessibility to CC are the most crucial factors that impart a significant role in their adaptation judgments. However, most growers have inadequate adaptation strategies, including improved irrigation and the utilization of extensive fertilizers and pesticides. Using a simultaneous equation model of endogenous switching regression, the study found that farmers not adapted to CC were negatively affecting maize productivity. Therefore, this study suggests that policymakers pay attention to the countermeasures farmers have not taken to mitigate the impact of CC. In addition, policymakers should deliver appropriate adaptation strategies to assist growers in coping with climate-related natural hazards and ensure farmers' livelihood security, rural revitalization, and sustainable agricultural development.

Effect of Farmers' Awareness of Climate Change on Their Willingness to Adopt Low-Carbon Production: Based on the TAM-SOR Model.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the intricate relationships between human health and the social-ecological system in an era of climate and global change. Widespread COVID-19 adversely affected farmers' employment, production practices, and livelihood resilience. At the same time, climate change is a key issue limiting agricultural production worldwide. Emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, are a major factor leading to global climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production are receiving increasing attention. Therefore, it is particularly important to develop low-carbon agriculture. Based on data from 920 family farms in Jiangsu province and Shaanxi province, this study constructs a structural equation model and empirically tests the relationship between the variables using the bootstrap method. The results show that: (1) climate change awareness did not directly stimulate farmers' willingness to pursue low-carbon production; (2) climate change awareness has an impact on low-carbon production willingness through perceived ease of use and consequence awareness; and (3) anti-risk ability can effectively moderate the impact of climate change awareness on low-carbon production behavior in agriculture. The theoretical model framework proposed in this study provides a reference for research in the field of low-carbon agriculture and also provides some insights and suggestions for environmentalists and governments. In addition, policymakers should effectively raise the sense of responsibility of farmers to address climate change and promote low-carbon agricultural production to achieve healthy and sustainable agricultural development.

Reversing Years for Global Food Security: A Review of the Food Security Situation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

All around the world, inequalities persist in the complex web of social, economic, and ecological factors that mediate food security outcomes at different human and institutional scales. There have been rapid and continuous improvements in agricultural productivity and better food security in many regions of the world during the past 50 years due to an expansion in crop area, irrigation, and supportive policy and institutional initiatives. However, in Sub-Saharan Africa, the situation is inverted. Statistics show that food insecurity has risen since 2015 in Sub-Saharan African countries, and the situation has worsened owing to the Ukraine conflict and the ongoing implications of the COVID-19 threat. This review looks into multidimensional challenges to achieving the SDG2 goal of "End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture" in Sub-Saharan Africa and the prosper policy recommendations for action. Findings indicate that weak economic growth, gender inequality, high inflation, low crop productivity, low investment in irrigated agriculture and research, climate change, high population growth, poor policy frameworks, weak infrastructural development, and corruption are the major hurdles in the sustaining food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. Promoting investments in agricultural infrastructure and extension services together with implementing policies targeted at enhancing the households' purchasing power, especially those in rural regions, appear to be essential drivers for improving both food availability and food access.

The impact of crop specialization on nutritional intake: Evidence from farm households in China.

BACKGROUND: In the wake of the severe impact of COVID-19 on the food security of the vulnerable groups in rural areas, the issue of how to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals 2 aims to "Zero Hunger" (SDG 2) and ensure the food safety of farmers has drawn unprecedented attention. Nutritional intake is generally used as an important indicator to reflect family food security. Under the background that Chinese farmers have gradually changed from the traditional diversified production mode to the specialized production of crops, the main purpose of this article is to explore what are the impact of crop specialization on farmers' nutritional intake? Could the specialization of crop production be taken as an important measure to ensure the food safety of farmers and achieve the SDG 2? METHODS: Based on the micro-survey data from 866 farmer households in China, this paper using Seemingly Unrelated Regressions model, Group Regression model and Mediating Effect model to analyze the average and heterogeneous effects of crop specialization on the nutritional intake of farmers, as well as the mediating effect of income. In addition, robustness test and endogenous treatment were performed by using alternative explanatory variables and IV-2SLS method was used to estimate the results. RESULTS: After correcting for endogenous bias, crop specialization had a significant negative impact on energy intake and fat intake of farmers at the statistical level of 5% and 1% respectively, especially for farmers in mountainous areas. Household income played a mediating effect on the effect of crop specialization on farmers' energy and fat intake, and the proportion of the masking effect was 8.43% and 8.96% respectively. In addition, household financial capital and social capital have a significant positive impact on farmers' nutritional intake. CONCLUSIONS: Crop specialization cannot guarantee the food safety of farmers in terms of nutritional intake. However, when the development trend of crop specialization is irreversible, more attention should be paid to improving the level of various livelihood capital of farmers, especially those in mountainous areas, and to continuously increasing their income to ease and ultimately eliminate the negative impact of crop specialization on farmers' nutritional intake, which finally make everyone realize the SDG 2.

Food Security: 3D Dynamic Display and Early Warning Platform Construction and Security Strategy.

Since it affects a nation's economy and people's wellbeing, food security is a crucial national security requirement. In order to realize multi-angle grain data presentation and analysis and achieve the goal of deep mining, we propose a 3D dynamic visualization analysis method of multidimensional agricultural spatial-temporal data based on the self-organizing map. This method realizes the multi-angle display and analysis of grain data and achieves the purpose of deep mining. With the outbreak of COVID-19, the global food security situation is not optimistic, so it is necessary to use the food security early warning system to solve the food security issue. Machine learning has emerged widely in recent years and has been applied in various fields. Therefore, it is an excellent way to solve food security to apply the model in machine learning to construct a food security early warning system. Afterward, a food security early warning platform is developed with a support vector regression (SVR) model to ensure food security. Finally, we analyze China's medium and long-term food security policy in line with modernization objectives. The experimental results show that the food security early warning platform based on the SVR model from 2007 to 2016 is effective compared with the actual situation every year. Through analyses, we should improve the stability, reliability, and sustainability of food supply, firmly hold the food security initiative, and construct a national food security guarantee system matching the goal of modernization.

Dynamic Conservation in Risk Society: A Case Study of COVID-19 Pandemic Risk in Kashan Qanat Irrigated Agriculture.

In the present age, the world agricultural heritage can inspire agroecology and sustainable agriculture. But various risks have threatened, eroded and forgotten this heritage, so dynamic conservation of this heritage is essential. In this study, "Qanat Irrigated Agricultural Heritage Systems, Kashan, Iran" which has been registered worldwide in the face of corona pandemic risks has been selected as a case study. In this qualitative research, in addition to field observations and documentary studies, 25 in-depth interviews and 39 semi-structured interviews with experts and key informants was done and grounded theory and content analysis have been used. In the process of interviews and analyzes based on "risk society theory", risks and wicked problems and related solutions have been identified and finally based on cultural theory, "clumsy solution space" has been summarized and presented for dynamic conservation. Based on the findings of this study, paying attention to a kind of reward for ecosystem services, developing online sales of agricultural products in rural areas of Kashan and also creating twinning with similar areas can help solve wicked problems. Also, paying more attention to the regulations for the protection of qanats, as well as the laws for home business insurance, can strengthen sustainable development in this rural area. Due to the wide range of different dimensions of agricultural heritage, it is suggested that in future research, clumsy solution spaces for each of these dimensions be created and developed separately.

Agricultural Openness and the Risk of COVID-19 Incidence: Evidence from China.

At present, there are large number of articles on the impact of COVID-19, but there are only a few articles on the impact of COVID-19 and international agriculture. Agriculture product is different from other industrial products. If domestic food cannot be self-sufficient, it must be resolved through imports. This will inevitably face the dilemma between the opening up agriculture and the risk of importing COVID-19. This paper pioneered the use of entropy method, TOPSIS method and grey correlation analysis to predict the correlation between agricultural opening to the outside world and the input and spread of COVID-19. We use the correlation matrix quantifying the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and agricultural openness to deduce that there is a significant positive correlation between the flow of agricultural products caused by China's agricultural opening-up and the spread of COVID-19, and use the proposed matrix to predict the spread risk of COVID-19 in China. The results of the empirical analysis can provide strong evidence for decision-makers to balance the risk of COVID-19 transmission with the opening of agricultural markets, and they can take this evidence into full consideration to formulate reasonable policies. This has great implications both for preventing the spread of COVID-19 and for agricultural opening-up.

The Potential of Selected Agri-Food Loss and Waste to Contribute to a Circular Economy: Applications in the Food, Cosmetic and Pharmaceutical Industries.

The food sector includes several large industries such as canned food, pasta, flour, frozen products, and beverages. Those industries transform agricultural raw materials into added-value products. The fruit and vegetable industry is the largest and fastest-growing segment of the world agricultural production market, which commercialize various products such as juices, jams, and dehydrated products, followed by the cereal industry products such as chocolate, beer, and vegetable oils are produced. Similarly, the root and tuber industry produces flours and starches essential for the daily diet due to their high carbohydrate content. However, the processing of these foods generates a large amount of waste several times improperly disposed of in landfills. Due to the increase in the world's population, the indiscriminate use of natural resources generates waste and food supply limitations due to the scarcity of resources, increasing hunger worldwide. The circular economy offers various tools for raising awareness for the recovery of waste, one of the best alternatives to mitigate the excessive consumption of raw materials and reduce waste. The loss and waste of food as a raw material offers bioactive compounds, enzymes, and nutrients that add value to the food cosmetic and pharmaceutical industries. This paper systematically reviewed literature with different food loss and waste by-products as animal feed, cosmetic, and pharmaceutical products that strongly contribute to the paradigm shift to a circular economy. Additionally, this review compiles studies related to the integral recovery of by-products from the processing of fruits, vegetables, tubers, cereals, and legumes from the food industry, with the potential in SARS-CoV-2 disease and bacterial diseases treatment.

Quantification and Comparison of Risks Associated with Wastewater Use in Spray Irrigation.

In the U.S., spray irrigation is the most common method used in agriculture and supplementing with animal wastewater has the potential to reduce water demands. However, this could expose individuals to respiratory pathogens such as Legionella pneumophila and nontuberculosis Mycobacteria (NTM). Disinfection with methods like anaerobic digestion is an option but can increase concentrations of cytotoxic ammonia (personal communication). Our study aimed to model the annual risks of infection from these bacterial pathogens and the air concentrations of ammonia and determine if anaerobically digesting this wastewater is a safe option. Air dispersion modeling, conducted in AERMOD, generated air concentrations of water during the irrigation season (May-September) for the years 2013-2018. These values fed into the quantitative microbial risk assessments for the bacteria and allowed calculation of ammonia air concentrations. The outputs of these models were compared to the safety thresholds of 10-4 infections/year and 0.5 mg/m3 , respectively, to determine their potential for negative health outcomes. It was determined that infection from NTM was not a concern for individuals near active spray irrigators, but that infection with L. pneumophila could be a concern, with a maximum predicted annual risk of infection of 3.5 × 10-3 infections/year and 25.2% of parameter combinations exceeding the established threshold. Ammonia posed a minor risk, with 1.5% of parameter combinations surpassing the risk threshold of 0.5 mg/m3 . These findings suggest that animal wastewater should be anaerobically digested prior to use in irrigation to remove harmful pathogens.

Farm diversification as a potential success factor for small-scale farmers constrained by COVID-related lockdown. Contributions from a survey conducted in four European countries during the first wave of COVID-19.

This paper explores to what extent product and marketing channel diversification contributed to the economic success of small-scale agricultural producers involved in short food supply chains after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. A survey was conducted between April and July 2020 in four countries of the European Union-Estonia, Hungary, Portugal and Romania,-resulting in a relatively large sample of farmers (N = 421). The analysis was built on a semi-nonparametric approach. Approximately 19 percent of small-scale producers were able to increase sales during the first wave of the pandemic, although country-level variation was significant. Fruits and vegetables were by far the most popular products. The importance of specific channels varied across countries, but farm gate sales were among the most important marketing channels both before and during the first wave. The importance of channels that were based on digital resources and home delivery increased. Our evidence indicates that diversification was a strategy that paid off, both in terms of marketing channels and different product categories. However, the impact appears to be nonlinear; the initial advantage generated by diversification rapidly tapered off, either temporarily (in the case of products), or permanently (in the case of marketing channels). Later research may clarify whether these findings are generalizable in other socio-economic contexts, as well as in a non-COVID situation.

Reactive nitrogen compounds and their influence on human health: an overview.

Nitrogen (N) is a critical component of food security, economy and planetary health. Human production of reactive nitrogen (Nr) via Haber-Bosch process and cultivation-induced biological N2 fixation (BNF) has doubled global N cycling over the last century. The most important beneficial effect of Nr is augmenting global food supplies due to increased crop yields. However, increased circulation of Nr in the environment is responsible for serious human health effects such as methemoglobinemia ("blue baby syndrome") and eutrophication of coastal and inland waters. Furthermore, ammonia (NH3) emission mainly from farming and animal husbandary impacts not only human health causing chronic lung disease, inflammation of human airways and irritation of eyes, sinuses and skin but is also involved in the formation of secondary particulate matter (PM) that plays a critical role in environment and human health. Nr also affects human health via global warming, depletion of stratospheric ozone layer resulting in greater intensity of ultra violet B rays (UVB) on the Earth's surface, and creation of ground-level ozone (through reaction of NO2 with O2). The consequential indirect human health effects of Nr include the spread of vector-borne pathogens, increased incidence of skin cancer, development of cataracts, and serious respiratory diseases, besides land degradation. Evidently, the strategies to reduce Nr and mitigate adverse environmental and human health impacts include plugging pathways of nitrogen transport and loss through runoff, leaching and emissions of NH3, nitrogen oxides (NO x ), and other N compounds; improving fertilizer N use efficiency; reducing regional disparity in access to N fertilizers; enhancing BNF to decrease dependence on chemical fertilizers; replacing animal-based proteins with plant-based proteins; adopting improved methods of livestock raising and manure management; reducing air pollution and secondary PM formation; and subjecting industrial and vehicular NO x emission to pollution control laws. Strategic implementation of all these presents a major challenge across the fields of agriculture, ecology and public health. Recent observations on the reduction of air pollution in the COVID-19 lockdown period in several world regions provide an insight into the achievability of long-term air quality improvement. In this review, we focus on complex relationships between Nr and human health, highlighting a wide range of beneficial and detrimental effects.

Post-COVID-19 Action: Guarding Africa's Crops against Viral Epidemics Requires Research Capacity Building That Unifies a Trio of Transdisciplinary Interventions.

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that understanding the genomics of a virus, diagnostics and breaking virus transmission is essential in managing viral pandemics. The same lessons can apply for plant viruses. There are plant viruses that have severely disrupted crop production in multiple countries, as recently seen with maize lethal necrosis disease in eastern and southern Africa. High-throughput sequencing (HTS) is needed to detect new viral threats. Equally important is building local capacity to develop the tools required for rapid diagnosis of plant viruses. Most plant viruses are insect-vectored, hence, biological insights on virus transmission are vital in modelling disease spread. Research in Africa in these three areas is in its infancy and disjointed. Despite intense interest, uptake of HTS by African researchers is hampered by infrastructural gaps. The use of whole-genome information to develop field-deployable diagnostics on the continent is virtually inexistent. There is fledgling research into plant-virus-vector interactions to inform modelling of viral transmission. The gains so far have been modest but encouraging, and therefore must be consolidated. For this, I propose the creation of a new Research Centre for Africa. This bold investment is needed to secure the future of Africa's crops from insect-vectored viral diseases.